Although looking at average national or state vote shares can mask support in individual electorates if all are unchallenged, a Brisbane weather Analysis of the 2019 federal election results by seat suggests that One Nation could meet funding thresholds in many other electorates where the UAP has already garnered such support.
In the last election, Palmer’s electoral vehicle won 148 of the country’s 151 seats and won more than 4% of the vote – and as much as 10% – in 41. But its candidates voted below One Nation in all 12 Queensland seats. , NSW and Victoria where Hanson’s party also ran.
Outside of Kennedy (held by fellow minor party stalwart Bob Katter), Whitlam and Gellibrand (where One Nation is not fielding candidates), that would leave an additional 28 seats where Hanson’s party could also exceed funding thresholds to compensate. his campaign expenses.
One Nation won 3.08% of the national lower house’s first preference vote in 2019, below Labour, Coalition parties, Greens, UAP (3.43%) and ‘independents’ , but especially other small right-wing parties. However, in Queensland and Western Australia, One Nation enjoyed more support than UAP.
In the Senate, One Nation secured 5.4% first preferences for its nationally grouped candidates, and over 4% in NSW, Queensland, WA and SA. The UAP only managed 2.36% nationally and topped 4% in the Northern Territory.
The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead, put One Nation’s national vote at 6% and the UAP’s at 4%. The UAP’s polled vote was 1 point lower in New South Wales, with One Nation’s three points lower in Victoria. Both were lower in the “rest of Australia”, but higher in Queensland.
Anne Tiernan, a political scientist and professor of politics at Griffith University, said an attempt to expand or secure a national footprint outside of her home state was another potential element of One Nation’s strategy, ahead of state elections in Victoria and NSW – where he holds two upper house seats. Palmer too.
“That’s it for a while unless he wants to saddle up against [premiers Dan] Andrews or [Dominic] Perrottet,” she said of Palmer’s efforts and hinted at future big spending drives, with Queensland’s next election not slated until late 2024.
University of Queensland political scientist Glenn Kefford said if the poll turned out to be a change-of-government election, those elections would historically have seen the votes go back to the main parties.
“The number one goal for One Nation is to get Hanson back in the Senate — everything else is kind of a secondary goal,” Kefford said. “To field candidates for every seat is really, I think, a two-pronged strategy: one is to get over the funding barrier, and the second is just to have people on the ground to kind of provide support to Hanson.”
Jacqueline Maley cuts through the noise of the federal election campaign with news, opinion and expert analysis. Sign up for our Australia Votes 2022 newsletter here.